Howard Stern Conversions - Subscriber Projections

 

For Immediate Release: Updated

Wednesday December 14, 2005

How Many Stern Subscribers? Now We Know!

Today Bridge Ratings released their final estimate of 2005 for Howard Stern conversions to satellite radio. An intense marketing campaign for Stern over the last two weeks has boosted our December estimates for Sirius satellite radio. However, we are projecting fewer Stern converts than previously estimated for the month of January.

The Glendale, California-based ratings and research company has been measuring radio listening and audience behavior in several markets where Howard Stern is heard. In response to queries regarding the potential audience Howard will take with him to the Sirius Satellite service in January of 2006, Bridge Ratings has been surveying Stern listeners in these markets* to determine their interest in subscribing to the service due to Howard's migration.

Bridge Ratings President Dave Van Dyke explains. “It would appear now that Sirius satellite radio will not exceed our projections first published in September. After interviewing Stern listeners who actually subscribed to Sirius in October, we are projecting an improving subscriber base of over 800,000 in the fourth quarter, but this number is lower than previously expected. Though pacing is strong for both satellite companies, this quarter will see Sirius surpass XM in quarterly subscriber count!”

The following estimates are derived based on a sampling of both Stern core and secondary listeners who spend at least an hour a week listening to the Howard Stern show on their local Stern affiliate. Based on interviews in recent weeks, Bridge Ratings is able to project the number of new Stern subscribers each month.

Click here for Stern Stat:

For the purposes of this survey, Bridge Ratings interviewed both current Stern listeners and those who no longer can hear Stern in their markets.

The results reproduced here represent Adults 18+. Based on these recent results, Bridge Ratings is able to project the actual number of Stern listeners who will subscribe in the through the holiday season 2005 and beyond Stern's sign-on in January 2006. The company will continue to track this data on a weekly basis and provide updates on this website into 2006.

With this updated projection based on interviews conducted November 21 through December 10, 2005, Bridge Ratings' projection for the period October 2005 through February 2006 is now less than 1,300,000 new Sirius subscribers by the end of February 2006. This estimate is over 1 hundred thousand subscribers lower than our initial estimates due to a softening interest by Stern listeners.

Among the reasons Stern listeners give for not subscribing to Sirius:

  • Cost (subscription + equipment)
  • Alternatives currently available on free radio
  • Value for the subscription fee
  • "Aren't as passionate about Stern as I once was"
  • "Will get my Stern fix on pay-per-view TV"

*Howard Stern markets surveyed: Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, Philadelphia, Boston, St. Louis, Las Vegas, Syracuse, Baltimore and Detroit. 3000 listeners 18+ Adults

Sample error: +/- 1.8%

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