Bridge Ratings Audience Erosion Study Enters Eleventh Month |
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For Immediate Release: Monday, November 1, 2004 Where Did My Listeners Go? Part 2 As part of Bridge Ratings’ on-going studies of radio listening behavior, this month the company is releasing initial results from its year-long Audience Attrition project. While the Attrition report released in August 2004 reflected true radio listener behavior in relation to long commercial sets, the Audience Erosion Study concentrated more on radio listener behavior relative to alternative audio media options for the radio listener. This study, which has been tracking such behavior since January, 2004, once again reveals behaviors we have assumed are taking place, but heretofore have not had clinical results to confirm. While this project is intended to be a two year study, initial results show: 1. Audience erosion to alternative audio entertainment occurs through all demographics. 2. Erosion rate is most significant in younger demographics and is pronounced in the 12-17 year old age group. 3. On-going interest in alternative media has been building through each of the months thus far studied (January – October, 2004) 4. Audience migration to digital playback devices (iPod, MP3), satellite radio, Internet Radio and Compact Disc is equally significant among male and female 12-17 year olds. As age increases to 18-49 year olds, females lead males in their migration to alternatives of terrestrial radio. 5. Audience erosion is now evident in older demographics (35-64), where a 16% increase in alternative media use is reflected from January to October 2004. Methodology. Bridge Ratings measures CUME SHARE and FAVORITENESS rather than CUME and Average Quarter Hours. AQH is a fabricated mathematical measurement of cume x an average quarter hour number composed of 'best guesses' by diary keepers. Thus, the AQH number tells a station or its client nothing about the capability of the station to deliver listeners. FAVORITENESS is a better measurement of loyalty especially when combined with the Cume number. The cume number divided by the favoriteness number yields a conversion number which more accurately measures station loyalty. In Bridge Ratings studies, stations that convert their cume audience to favoriteness at the rate of 40% or more are powerful instruments in their communities. This is powerful information for both station and advertisers alike. For the “Erosion Studies”, as an add-on to our usual questionnaire, Bridge Ratings selected 1000 persons over six national markets to be interviewed on an every other day basis regarding the listener’s use of AM/FM radio and, where applicable, their use of digital media players, Internet Radio, CD’s, cassettes or satellite radio. Questionnaires were structured to seek overall daily use of the aforementioned media with short recall requirements. The results represent the multi-market sample’s behavior and reflects quarter hours of usage per week.
Traditional Radio Erosion to New Media Number of quarter hours listened
How to read: In the above chart, 12-24 year olds surveyed were spending 68 quarter hours per week with traditional radio (AM/FM) and 50 quarter hours per week with alternative media. During quarter 2, 2004, traditional radio usage among this group dropped to 66 quarter hours per week while their use of alternative media increased slightly to 51 quarter hours. Over the course of the year, however, the 12-24 year olds surveyed used traditional radio 18 percent less (68 QH in Q1 to 56 QH) in September. During Q1 2004 12-24 year olds in this study were spending 2 hours 25 minutes per day with traditional radio and 1 hour 47 minutes per day with digital alternatives. By September, these same participants were spending 2 hours per day with their AM/FM radios while time spent with digital media increased to 2 hours 15 minutes per day. The Significance of the Innovation Adoption Curve Many of us in the industry suspected this type of migration to new media, but we have to look carefully at whom these results reflect. It may help to review the Innovation Adoption Curve. While the initial results of our two-year study show significant quarter hour migration among 12-24's, this group tends to have a higher percentage of "innovators" and "early adopters" vs. older demographics. However, each age group includes its own percentage of these early adopters of new technologies. The "Innovation Adoption Curve" is a model that classifies adopters of innovations into various categories based on the idea that certain individuals are inevitably more open to adaptation than others. "Innovators" can be as advanced as a year in front of early adopters. "Early adopters" are ahead of their demo brethren by about 6-8 months. Once we see the early adopters' Time Spent Using new media (TSU) increasing, the "Early Majority" which make up about 34% of the total innovation curve, begin to move about 6-8 months later. Every segment (demographic) has its share of "early adopters" and you can see this evident in these initial results. However, for this particular discussion, there is a more active, larger group of Early Adoptors in the 12-24 year old group.
The 'Early Majority' are thoughtful people, careful but accepting of change more quickly than average. The "Early Adopters" and "Innovators" are whom we are seeing move the needle in these Bridge Ratings' studies. "Innovators" (2.5%) are brave people, pulling the change. Innovators are very important in communicating change to the masses. "Early Adopters" (13.5%) are respectable people, opinion leaders who like to try out new ideas but in a careful way. "Innovators" and "Early Adopters" together comprise only 16% of all consumers.) Why is this relevant? Because the moves we are seeing with the Bridge Ratings Erosion report primarily reflect these first two groups. The "early majority", "Late majority" and "Laggards" comprise the rest. This is radio's opportunity: to enhance its "entertainment value" to this larger collection of uncommited potential users of digital media. The "Late Majority" (34%) represent 'skeptical people who will use new ideas or products only when the majority is using it. "Laggards" (16%) are 'traditional people, caring for the 'old ways', are critical towards new ideas and will only accept it if the new idea has become mainstream or even tradition. Simmons Spring 2004 Unified Hispanic and National Consumer
Survey reveals over 3 million adults 18+ already subscribe
to satellite radio and over 5.5 million plan to subscribe in
the next 12 months. The study also examines the demographics
of consumers who plan to subscribe to satellite radio in the
year and finds that men are 9% more likely than the average
consumer to plan to subscribe; potential subscribers are 30%
more likely to be age 25-34; they are 38% more likely to be
single and the mean household income of adults planning to
subscribe to satellite radio is $74,066 (7% above the national
average). The radio press seems to be reporting that
there is a groundswell underway toward revitalizing the industry
by showing more interest and investment in talent, presentation
and content. If the industry dedicates 2005 to accomplishing
much of this transformation, it should stem or at least slow
the migration to new media by this larger group of reluctant
adopters of innovation.
For additional information, contact Dave Van Dyke at 818.291.6420.
Markets measured: Los Angeles, Phoenix, Chicago, Nashville, Boston, West Palm Beach
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