Bridge Ratings utilizes a sample size of 4400 persons ages 12-64 on a monthly basis to track and trend the behaviors of podcast consumers. This chart represents our most recent podcast user projections compared to those published in September 2005. The red line represents our original projections of those users who have ever downloaded and listened to a podcast. The blue bars represent new projections based on interviews conducted during September 2006 for comparable years. The trend line still shows solid growth for the technology however the quantity of users is somewhat reduced from our original projections.

The following chart shows podcast consumer use over time since July 2005. On the far left of this chart the trended the 'Yes' responses to the question "Have you Listened to a Podcast in the last 30 days?".

It is clear that for much of 2006, usage has slipped among all age groups. From a July 2005 high of 61% to the July low of 43%, there is evidence of declining usage among our panels. The primary reasons given include a) lifestyle changes, b) reduction of the quality of podcast content and c) awareness of podcasts available.

In August 2006, there is evidence of a solid improvement in the number of consumers listening to podcasts as the sample as a whole increased to over 50% of those in the study. This improvement may be a product of lifestyle change again at the conclusion of summer, improved podcast quality or improved awareness levels.

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One of the key contributors to the drop in listenership can be found in the changing landscape or composition of the podcast universe. During 2005, nearly 100% of podcast users who rushed to the technology were innovators and early adopters. This group is composed generally of hobbyists who jumped into the technology with both feet, whether consumers or podcast producers. This group drove the awareness of podcasting among the tech press and eventually among the mainstream press.
Near the end of 2005 terrestrial radio began embracing podcast technology quite significantly led very effectively by National Public Radio. Commercial radio operators began utilizing this technology more effectively at the start of 2006. Broadcast groups like Clear Channel Communications and CBS Radio quickly understood the benefit of podcasting to expanding their audience reach and combating audience attrition due to new technologies. Armed with huge broad audiences and effective marketing and promotion capabilities, terrestrial radio's push quickly exposed podcasting to middle America. An infusion of a more broad audience has changed the podcast consumer landscape to the point of having two very distinct audience segments: The hobbyists still comprise the signficant majority while the Early and Late Majority mainstream begins to join the party in healthy numbers.

By August 2006, Bridge Ratings estimates that 22% of the podcast listener universe is comprised of mainstream America. By March of 2007, the composition of this audience will have evolved to the point that less than 60% of the audience base are hobbyists.

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When asked "How many podcasts did you download in the last 30 days?" the number is certainly impacted by age. 12-24 year olds still consume the largest number of podcasts in a typical month.

However, trending over time even the number of podcasts being listened by individuals has declined. In this chart which measures those who download 10 or more podcasts in a typical month, even the most active 12-24 year olds are downloading fewer unique podcasts: 42% fewer.

Bridge Ratings measures two quantitative areas of podcast use: Ever listened to a podcast and those who have listened to a podcast in a typical week. The follow chart shows historical and projected weekly numbers of podcast listeners. The orange bars represent original projections based no 2005 interviews; the blue bars are the revised forecasts based on 2006 interviews.

Among the things we've learned over the past year, we know that 2005's heaviest use was coming from the hobbyist podcast listener and that traditional radio's acceptance and use of the technology to further their own needs has brought a fresh new group of mainstream Americans to the medium and that over time this mainstream group will continue to increase.

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Podcast "hobbysts", the original podcast consumers are now consuming fewer podcasts than they were a year ago due primarily to inferior quality of podcasts linked directly to the 'home-grown" nature of the podcasts this group prefers. Meanwhile, podcast listeners driven by traditional radio are increasing their use of the medium primarily due to the same reasons that first attracted the hobbyists, i.e., it is an exciting new form of communication linked to new technology toys.

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The single biggest obstacle to podcast audience growth remains "ease of use". The process for searching, identifying, delivery and listening needs to be simplified if a much larger audience is going to become involved. Terrestrial radio is the one key proponent for the growth of the medium. With its huge audiences and professional production and marketing abilities, traditional radio can rapidly introduce mainstream America to the benefits of podcasting.

At the 2005 Podcast & Portable Media Conference in Ontario, California, Bridge Ratings President Dave Van Dyke presented the first-of-its-kind metric associated with podcasting time-spent-listening. This year's follow-up shows that even the heaviest users (referred to Quintile V consumers) spend 396 minutes or 6.6 hours per month listening to podcasts. This is down 27% from the results of the 2005 study.

Bridge Ratings also reported in its 2005 study that less than 20% of the podcast sample were listening to podcasts on some sort of portable device (MP3 player or iPod). The average was 17%. One year later this number is 13%. Again, we believe that simplicity of the technology affects this number as well. In reality, the vast majority of podcast listeners are not listening to "podcasts" but rather "netcasts" on their PC's.

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In conclusion, though the numbers of listeners to podcasts appear to have fallen over the last year, the reality is that the medium is in a severe growth curve as the composite of the entire listener populous is changing dramatically month-by-month. Terrestrial radio's adoption of the medium as a way to offer a Tivo-like experience (time shifting of favorite programs) to its listeners has vastly helped and with continued high-quality traditional broadcasting content, the medium will show improved growth trends over the near-term. The improvement in August to the number of our sample that listened to a podcast in the last 30 days is only a one month recovery and time will tell if this trend continues when the September report is released in late October.

A full version of Dave Van Dyke's presentation to the "Podcast & Portable Media Conference" on September 30, 2006 is available to purchase. To order click here.

For additional information, contact Dave Van Dyke at 818.291.6420.

*Markets included in this study: Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, St. Louis, Chicago, Boston, Washington, DC, Miami, Dallas, Atlanta.

Bridge Ratings is a ratings and research company based in Glendale, California. We are dedicated to providing on-going, immediate, reliable, useable and affordable audience measurement services for the radio industry. Our methodolgy is based on sound consumer research principles. We are in the business of tracking listeners - not listening. Because we are a true research company we offer flexibility