Bridge Ratings Industry Update - The Podcasting Outlook |
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For Immediate Release Updated Wednesday March 7, 2007 Survey Update: Podcasting Growth Forecast Revised Based on interviews with radio listeners in ten national markets*, Bridge Ratings released today its updated analysis of behavior in the podcast universe. Phone interviews were conducted with members of the Bridge Ratings Podcast Panel along with a national panel of general media consumers to measure their use of podcasts over time. This is an on-going study of podcast users updated every six months. The last update was in August of 2006. Note: Bridge Ratings conducts media consumer interviews on a weekly and monthly basis covering various listening behaviors. Over the last six months, we have been asking about podcasting. 75,000 total interviews were conducted over that period. 3.3% or 2475 persons 12-64 responded "yes", they had downloaded and listened to a podcast. We asked the total sample of media consumers if they had ever "Downloaded a podcast to listen to or view at a later time?"
Just 3.3% of the sample responded yes. Our representative sample therefore estimates that approximately 9.9 million Americans have ever listened to a podcast in the last six months. In 2006 the "Podcast user group looked like this:
The following chart displays revised projections for the podcast universe from 2004 through 2010. The red line represents our former projections published in August of 2005. Based on interviews through February 2007 with podcast listeners' current listening habits and their opinions on their future use of the medium, the revised estimates appear as the blue and maroon bars in the chart below. The good news here is that user growth between February 2007 and August 2006 was more substantial than previously expected which boosts our estimates for 2007 and beyond. These estimates move us closer to the original projections (line in red).
Podcast listening had been trending down during much of the summer of '06 and listening was significantly off compared to the summer of 2005. Listening rebounded in August among most demographics and continued through the fall and early winter. When we asked our podcast user panel "Have you listened to a podcast in the last 30 days?", 'yes' responses peaked in November of 2006 and have subsided slightly since. However, even removing November's high numbers, the 12+ up trend remains through to February.
Discreet age demographics are shown below:
12-24 year olds responding "yes" to this question are off slightly from November 2006 and like the overall group more members of this age group are listening to podcasts than were in August 2006. 25-34 year olds appear to have a steady positive trend developing. We also wanted to know if listening to podcasts that originate with a terrestrial radio station can affect or increase time-spent-listening or tune-in. We asked the sample of podcast listeners if listening to terrestrial radio-based podcasts had caused them in any way to tune back in or to have increased their listening to that radio station.
56% of the sample said "yes". Even more interesting is the resulting breakout from the same question when the sample is defined by their interest in adopting new technology. Diffusion of innovations theory was formalized by Everett Rogers in a 1962 book called Diffusion of Innovations. Rogers stated that adopters of any new innovation or idea could be categorized as innovators (2.5%), early adopters (13.5%), early majority (34%), late majority (34%) and laggards (16%), based on a bell curve. Each adopter's willingness and ability to adopt an innovation would depend on their awareness, interest, evaluation, trial, and adoption. Some of the characteristics of each category of adopter include:
The following chart reveals podcast listening's influence on increased radio listening by adoption categories:
Middle America or those consumers of media that began listening to podcasting more than 18 months after the technology was first mass marketed (early 2005) show signs of not only being current users of terrestrial radio, but also the group that responds positively to podcasting as a means to aid radio listening. Podcasting Adoption Trends The biggest change to the podcast audience composition over the last year has been the ever-increasing addition of those individuals who consider themselves the "early majority". Initial podcast consumer studies by Bridge Ratings showed a composition of nearly 95% "innovators" and "early adopters", those consumers who consider themselves highly oriented to leading change or who like to try out new ideas but in a careful way. Over the last year, though the composition of the podcast audience remains heavily skewed to these early adopter groups, their listening levels have decreased. Concurrently, more "early and late majority" consumers have slowly tried and enjoyed listening to podcasts. However, these slower-to-adopt-to new technology consumers prefer different types of podcasts than their innovator podcast brethren. The early and late majority podcast listener prefers more professional podcast production such as those programs produced and distributed by professional broadcast organizations like NPR and the major television and radio networks. In March of 2005, Innovators - or those consumers likely to adopt new technologies significantly earlier than main stream Americans, comprised 90 percent of the podcast user life group. By August 2006 this number had decreased to 72 percent while the number of "Early Majority" and "Late Majority" had reached 5%. In this most current report, "Innovators", the most adaptive group, slipped to 70%, "Early adopters" actually increased from 23% to 24% and the Early and Late Majority consumers now comprise just 6% of all Americans who have downloaded and listened to a podcast. As the podcasting consumer audience grows it becomes more broad representing a wider consumer base and, therefore, a wider preference for content. Credit terrestrial radio for this infusion of new podcast consumers. Over the last year, many traditional broadcasters have adopted podcast technology as a way to enhance their listeners' experience and for the radio stations to extend their reach. Bridge Ratings is finding that NPR, for example, has been able to significantly improve its already excellent "loyalty" scores among those who already listen. In general, this approach to embracing new technologies is helping terrestrial radio among adults - specifically 30+ years of age. So, while podcast innovators have reduced their listening, podcast users closer to the mainstream have been increasing their use. Trends still are down because the significant majority of podcast users remain this innovator/early adopter group which has - overall - reduced their consumption of podcasts over the past twelve months. Bridge Ratings continues to monitor podcast use over time. One way users are tracked is through the use of panels or groups of users who are interviewed over time in order to record consistent use patterns among identical samples. The following chart represents the composition of the podcast audience by adoption levels.  n
On average 15% of our panelists listen to their podcast downloads on an MP3 player or other digital device. The rest are listening on their computers. This metric is down from 20% in July of 2005. See the data as presented at last year's Portable Media Expo, Ontario, California *Sample = 2475 listeners 12-64. Sample error = +/- 2.0% *Markets including in this study: Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, St. Louis, Chicago, Boston, Washington, DC, Miami, Dallas, Atlanta. Bridge Ratings is a ratings and research company based in Glendale, California. We are dedicated to providing on-going, immediate, reliable, useable and affordable audience measurement services for the radio industry. Our methodology is based on sound consumer research principles. We are in the business of tracking listeners - not listening. Because we are a true research company we offer client flexibility and customization in our studies.
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