For Immediate Release:
Wednesday January 10, 2007
Pool of Potential Active Stern Listeners Shrinking
For the first time since it began tracking interest in subscriptions to satellite radio by listeners of Howard Stern in the fall of 2004, Bridge Ratings & Research has accumulated enough on-going data to project the liklihood of Howard Stern's former terrestrial radio listeners to convert to Stern's show on satellite radio.
Through December of 2006, we projected that Stern was directly responsible for converting approximately 1.6 million of his listeners from traditional radio to subscribers to Sirius satelltie radio. This amounts to 32% of the satcaster's total subscriber growth from just prior to Stern's announced move to Sirius in October 2004 through 2006.
Based on Bridge Ratings estimates 57% of Stern's core (heavy) terrestrial radio listener base followed him to Sirius satellite radio. This is an extreme conversion rate among Stern's most loyal fans. His core audience composed approximately 20% of his total national terrestrial audience. Using a 2005 national terrestrial audience of 14 million, 2.8 million listeners represented this heavy listener base(minimum 2 hours per day listening) group. This heavy listener group provides Stern with his greatest potential for Stern channel growth. The untapped segment equals another 1.2 million listeners. While we believe it is unlikely that Stern will attract 100% of this former heavy listener base, it is very likely Sirius and Stern can attract an additional 600,000 of these fans based on three marketing scenarios that were presented to this potential audience during interview sessions in 2006.
Marketing option #1 yielded the best results motivating 60% of the remaining core listener base to tell us they would be "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to subscribe to Sirius based on this marketing option..
Marketing option #2 had a yield of 35%.
Marketing option #3 generated positive interest from 20%.
Marketing strategies used in these studies are kept confidential by request from our client.
Viewing the potential of these marketing options over time is even more revealing. We presented these marketing options to our panel of core Stern listeners three times during the course of 2006. Marketing scenarios offered three different retail incentive programs created to attract potential Stern listeners, including a scenario with an introductory period of free subscription and free radio hardware.
% of Potential Stern Core Listeners Motivated to Subscribe
to Sirius Satellite Radio
| |
Jan. 2006 |
June 2006 |
Dec 2006 |
| Option #1 |
78% |
72% |
60% |
| Option #2 |
42% |
39% |
35% |
| Option #3 |
26% |
22% |
20% |
How to read: 60% of former Howard Stern core (heavy listening) terrestrial listeners would likely subscribe to Sirius if marketing option #1 (significant introductory monthly discount + free hardware for limited time) were offered.
The opportunity to attract former Stern core listeners was greatest during the first half of 2006. The pool of potential former terrestrial Stern listeners who would be inclined to subscribe to Sirius grows smaller each month without a targeted marketing plan to attract them. This study confirms that the proper promotional offer would attract an additional percentage of former Stern listeners who have as yet subscribed.
Current subscribers to Sirius who joined specifically because of Stern answered the following questions:
| |
180 days+ |
90-180 days |
60-90 days |
Less than 60 days |
| How long have you been a subscriber to Sirius? |
43% |
29% |
18% |
10% |
| |
Better than before |
About the Same as before |
Not as good as before |
No Opinion |
| What's Your Opinion of the Sirius version of the Howard Stern Show? |
72% |
18% |
2% |
8% |
| |
|
|
|
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2007 Satellite Radio Growth Forecast
With 49% subscriber growth in 2006 vs. 2005, the satellite radio sector expererienced growth only second to the growth seen in the MP3 player market. Though satellite radio subscriber counts fell short of the estimated 15 million originally predicted by the industry, its stunning growth cannot be denied.
Bridge Ratings projects the industry will add 3.9 million new subscribers in 2007 up 28% over 2006.
Composition trends of total satellite radio subscriber counts is represented in the following graph:
Short of a massive and creative marketing campaign by Sirius to further promote the Howard Stern channels, audience for Stern's channels should reach 2.1 million by year's end.
*Former Howard Stern markets surveyed: Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, Philadelphia, Boston, St. Louis, Las Vegas, Syracuse, Baltimore and Detroit. Additional former Stern listeners were mined across U.S. cities where Stern's terrestrial show had been canceled prior to January 1, 2006. 3200 listeners 18+ were used in this study.
Sample error: +/- 1.8%
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